2025 PCA Pre-Game Part 2 – The Pre-Show Analysis

For the 15th year, the Cigar Coop Coalition will provide coverage of the Premium Cigar Association (PCA) Trade Show and Convention. This is also the 15th consecutive Trade Show we are covering, and we are proud to be a part of a tiny group of media to say that. Our four-part series for the 2025 PCA Trade Show has you covered, whether you are going to the show or following from home.

In this installment, we analyze some things in preparation for the Trade Show. I present nine questions in no particular order. Once again, the Cigar Coop Coalition brings the combined efforts of Cigar Coop The Magazine, The Smoking Syndicate, El Oso Fumar, and Let’s Get Pairing.

How will the fire at AJ Fernandez’s Factory Affect the Trade Show?

 

Answer: The effects of the fire are most likely to be felt when it’s time to deliver products in the short term

On March 31, a fire affected Tabacalera AJ Fernandez Cigars de Nicaragua S.A. in Estelí, Nicaragua. It has been reported that the fire started in the packaging area and spread to other parts of the factory.  The total impact and losses from the fire are still unclear. Although no injuries were reported, a source told Cigar Coop that there were significant losses due to the incident. Most of these losses involved finished cigars and parts of the rolling area.

What is unique about this factory is that they do large-scale production for many third-party cigar companies. As a result, many companies will be affected by the fire.

Several cigar companies, such as Artesano Del Tobacco and Foundation Cigar Company, have already prepared customers to expect delays. I anticipate some of AJ Fernandez’s more significant customers, like Altadis U.S.A. and Scandinavian Tobacco Group, will also feel the effects. The companies producing cigars at AJ Fernandez will most likely show off their new products, but when those products hit shelves is anyone’s guess.

In the past 24 hours, while this article was being prepared, a new rolling space has been set up at the factory. As a result, I’m betting AJ will quickly get his operation back to where it was pre-fire, so I think that will mitigate the blow. At the same time, it sounds like product was lost, and that will result in near-term impacts.

How will President Trump’s Tariffs affect the Trade Show?

Answer: The impacts won’t significantly impact what is being shown at the PCA show, but post-show is another story.

The timing of this announcement could not have been worse for the premium cigar industry. Base tariffs took effect on April 5, while reciprocal tariffs are set for April 9. The Trade Show floor opens on April 12. Much of the U.S. premium cigar and premium cigar accessories industry depends on imports. If these tariffs hold, they will impact both sectors.

The four major cigar-producing countries of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic will have 10% reciprocal tariffs implemented, with Nicaragua having the highest at 18%. It’s not just the Latin American countries; other reciprocal tariffs exist in Europe and Asia. China’s reciprocal tariff of 34% will likely have a significant impact on accessory companies. Coles of London, the U.S. distributor for S.T. Dupont that sells items made in both continents, has warned retailers to expect increases.

The impact of tariffs on prices remains uncertain and difficult to forecast. While companies are not known to have taken drastic actions at this point, it is possible that these tariffs may influence the special offers that retailers typically provide. Conversely, some retailers may choose to stock up on inventory prior to any potential increases in prices that are expected to occur after the Trade Show.

Post-trade show, I would expect price increases passed to the consumer.

How will Davidoff’s return impact the PCA Trade Show?

 

Answer: It won’t be a big splash return, but it will be a welcome and positive overall return.

Davidoff’s return to the PCA Trade Show brings the last of the Big Four companies back to the Trade Show. In 2020, Davidoff, Drew Estate, STG, and Altadis withdrew from the Trade Show. Altadis and STG made their return in 2023, followed by Drew Estate in 2024. Now, Davidoff is back for the first time since 2019.

My discussions with people from Davidoff, including CEO Beat Hauenstein, showed genuine excitement about their return. I agree that having Davidoff back is very good for the PCA Trade Show.

In terms of products, it doesn’t sound like there will be a core line coming out. Davidoff is launching the 10th Anniversary Escurio Limited Edition, and the AVO Syncro 10th Anniversary Limited Edition just hit the stores. Camacho has not announced anything as of now, but if they do, I believe it will be a limited edition. Limited editions are great and certainly fulfill the “what’s new” criteria, but they don’t carry the same vibe.

Davidoff’s return will provide an excellent opportunity for retailers and media to connect with the brand. Additionally, Davidoff has organized some after-hours events that will enhance the overall experience. While there may not be a significant new product launch, the return of Davidoff will still contribute to a positive experience overall.

What will this be the “Year of”?

Answer: My vote is for Year of the San Andres.

Every year at the PCA Trade Show, there seems to be a different theme or trend. Based on my observations and expertise, I propose likely ones for consideration:

• Year of the San Andres: Look at our Big Board – quite a few San Andres wrapped releases.
• Year of the Anniversary Cigar: In terms of anniversary releases, we will see the JRE Tobacco, HVC, Aganorsa Leaf, Rocky Patel, Davidoff, El Septimo Geneva, Altadis U.S.A., and more. I’m thinking J.C. Newman will probably do something special for their 130th anniversary.
• Year of the Sampler: Like limited editions, samplers are easy to put together and solve the problem of “What’s New?

At press time, John McTavish from Developing Palates has estimated that there will be at least 21 San Andres releases. This suggests that “Year of the San Andres” could be a prominent theme this year, though sampler packs and anniversary cigars are also likely to make a significant impact.

Will the move to New Orleans in the spring change attendance positively or negatively?

 

Answer: PCA has reported good numbers, but I’m uncertain if attendance will be impacted much.

Over the past few years, I have been comparing badge counts to foot traffic. Reports from the PCA suggest that badge numbers are showing a positive trend. One area where the PCA has excelled for 2025 is in recruiting retail members. This effort includes not only attracting new members but also retaining former members.

These are the retail attendance, badge numbers, and trends since 2022.

Year	Accounts	% Change (Acct)	Badges	% Change (Bdg)
2022	772		2005
2023	806	4.40%	2156	7.53%
2024	850	5.46%	2183	1.25%

If PCA can get another 5.4% increase in accounts for 2025, it deserves a lot of credit, and it will show that the recruitment and reinstatement of members were effective. I think this will be challenging as the show coincides with parts of the Jewish festival of Passover and Christian Holy Week.  The current economy, general disdain for New Orleans,  and even the Masters taking place that weekend could also be factors. Even 3% would be a win, provided they increase by 3% the following year.

The 1.25% in badges was smaller, showing that retailers invested a little less in buying at the 2024 Trade Show. I believe retailers simply overbought and overspent in 2023 and were not in a position to buy heavily in 2024. This ultimately led to some sending fewer people to the show.

I have repeatedly mentioned that badge numbers do not accurately reflect foot traffic, specifically the number of people present on the show floor at a given moment. Historical data from previous trade shows shows a decline in foot traffic each day. After speaking with many retailers, it seems that this is largely due to their inability to allocate funds to spend at a three-day trade show. I anticipate that this trend will continue, particularly a decrease in floor traffic during the second half of the third day.

Can the PCA pull off a successful show in New Orleans?

Answer: I have a lot of confidence that PCA will have success in New Orleans, but challenges outside the floor might create a distraction.

Two key factors are needed to achieve an outstanding show: 1) PCA needs a good vibe going into the day the trade show floor opens; 2) Smoking must be permitted during the show and after-show hours.

The Vibe

The debacle of Cigarcon the day before the 2019 Trade Show absolutely torpedoed that show. At the same time, we know things like Fuente Friday, the 2023 Opening Party, and Hand Rolled have created a positive vibe. The good news is that PCA has an attractive opening day planned. This includes: Hand Rolled: Julio R. Eiroa, the next Generation Panel, and Guy Fieri doing a panel discussion and attending the opening party. I can’t see a lot going wrong with the opening day.

On the other hand, forces outside PCA’s control could impact things….

The whole tariff situation has many manufacturers and retailers feeling anxious. Most companies haven’t announced price increases, but price hikes are probably on the horizon. The key question is whether this will encourage retailers to purchase before prices go up, creating a positive atmosphere, or if it will lead to a gloomy outlook for the rest of the year, generating negative energy.

While the recent fire at AJ Fernandez has undoubtedly generated a significant wave of support for AJ and his company, there are some concerns regarding the potential impact on timely product deliveries to various third-party companies. This situation could influence the overall market atmosphere.

Smoking

When it comes to smoking, which is an important aspect of the show, let’s clarify a common misconception: you will be able to smoke in the Convention Center during the Trade Show. Additionally, the PCA deserves recognition for creating a thorough guide to where smoking will be permitted in areas throughout the city of New Orleans.

The PCA has been focused on making the event more experiential and has acknowledged the need to make the after-hours smoking experience similar to Vegas’ “Circle Bar,” which we’ve seen at Bar Luca, the Crystal Bar, and the old Laguna Champagne Bar. PCA has contracted with Manning’s and Cuban Creations in New Orleans as “official” after-hous venues. Manning’s is the closer option. Both will have outdoor smoking options. It isn’t the same as having the bar downstairs from your hotel, nor will it be 24/7 (although both open late), but PCA is trying to address the issue. It’s a bit uncertain at this point, but I believe that despite some potential complaints, both places will ultimately meet attendee needs.

Other Factors to Watch

One thing that could cause a negative vibe before the show is problems on setup days for the manufacturers. For example, in the past, during setup day in New Orleans in 2015, the air conditioning was not turned on. While the heat should not be as extreme this time, manufacturers working in uncomfortable conditions could contribute to a negative feeling on opening day.

The weather could be the other factor, particularly if it rains. It could throw a monkey wrench into after-hours smoking and the opening party (although there is an indoor contingency plan). This one I am watching a little closer.

This won’t be 2015. The PCA is doing much better in terms of organization and preparation. They will pull this off.

Has the PCA Finally Figured Out the Pre-Show Day?

Answer: I believe they have made significant progress and should continue in this direction. However, they still need to determine how to enhance the opening reception.

If you want to see a comparison of how far the PCA has come in this area, look at the agenda ten years ago in 2015 (when it last was in New Orleans) versus this year’s agenda.

IPCPR Pre-Show Agenda 2015

Day One

• 11:00 am – 12:00 pm: How to Get & Keep Good Customers
• 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm: Tobacconist University & How to Benefit From It
• 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm: 12 Things To Do As Soon As You Get Back To The Store
• 5:00 pm – 7:00 pm: Government Affairs Briefing & Cocktail Hour

Day Two

• 8:00 am – 10:00 am IPCPR Annual Meeting and Breakfast (featuring author Larry Winget as the keynote speaker)

PCA Pre-Show Agenda 2025 (all single day)

• 1 pm – 1:45 pm: Cigar Docuseries Premiere: Hand Rolled: Julio R. Eiroa
• 2:10pm – 3:10pm: Next Generation of Makers Panel (Lissete Perez-Carillo, Klaas Keler, José Luis Plasencia, Raquel and Patricia Quesada)
• 3:20 pm – 3:50 pm: Premium Cigar Association Annual Meeting
• 4:00 pm – 5 pm: Fireside Chat with Guy Fieri
• 5:30 pm – 7 pm: Opening Party (Mississippi River Heritage Park)

For the most part, the answer is that PCA has figured this out. Gone are the boring seminars seen on the 2015 agenda. In addition, PCA has moved away from spending money on a keynote speaker and is using industry talent. When the PCA Trade Show resumed after skipping a year due to COVID, the PCA decided to forgo a keynote speaker. Instead, in 2022, they featured the Fuente Friday seminar with Carlito Fuente and José Blanco, which showcased the effectiveness of using industry talent. I can confidently say that the 2024 opening day was the best one I have attended. Additionally, moving the Annual Meeting from an early morning start just before the Trade Show opens to the afternoon before was a wise decision.

The opening party has been a challenge for the PCA regime in recent years. While the event in 2023 showed improvement with contributions from Espinosa (alongside Guy Fieri), Dunbarton Tobacco & Trust, Quality Importers, and Room101, the 2024 party fell short. It lacked energy and had an overly industrial vibe. With Fieri and Saka returning for this year’s event, along with Villiger and Buffalo Trace, and an attractive outdoor venue, there’s hope that it will regain the positive momentum of 2023.

Could “Unveilings” be the new trend at the PCA Trade Show?

Answer: I don’t expect a huge trend of this, but it seems to be trendier 

I am looking at product unveilings, which occur when a product is showcased for the first time at a trade show. Companies have employed this strategy in the past. Some opt for a formal unveiling, while others choose to wait until the trade show floor opens to reveal their product. Although the list is small, this year, companies such as Perdomo, Plasencia, S.T. Dupont, and Bentley Tobacco are planning to unveil new products on the show floor.

I appreciate this approach. As I mentioned in the first installment of my PCA Pre-Game Series, the Trade Show is about much more than just sales. It serves as a platform to promote the industry. The key point is that participating in the Trade Show should encompass more than merely capitalizing on Trade Show orders.

Will the PCA Solve the Problem of Invalid Badges?

Answer: The problem won’t be completely solved, but I’m optimistic that the first steps have been taken

While invalid badges may not seem like a big problem, it is. You can only attend if you are an industry trade member or a media invitee of the PCA. PCA Alliance (Consumers, non-cigar businesses) members may not attend the show. PCA has stated that it will enforce this policy.

Different types of memberships come with varying costs and benefits, as well as different access times to the trade show floor. Over the years, a significant issue has been that consumers and media personnel have been able to use manufacturer and retail badges to gain entry to the trade show floor. Notably, a manufacturer badge grants access during additional hours, including setup day.

The irony is that when it comes to media, they can bypass getting a media credential and take advantage of a badge for a manufacturer. Not only will they avoid badge fees (if they go beyond one badge), but they will also get more Trade Show access than a media member following the correct procedures. This circumventing of the credential process is not allowed by the PCA.

This issue has persisted for over a decade. It was first acknowledged during the Scott Pearce era. Now, PCA Executive Director Joshua Habursky is determined to address this problem aggressively. A significant part of the solution will depend on whether PCA chooses to enforce the badging requirements. I have faith that PCA and Habursky will follow through on this, but it will take several cycles for the PCA to effectively resolve the issue.

2025 PCA Pre-Game Series – Other Installments

• PCA Pre-Game Series Part 1: The Show
• PCA Pre-Game Series Part 2: The Pre-Show Analysis
• PCA Pre-Game Report Part 3: Predictions for Top 5 Cigars of PCA 2025
• PCA Pre-Game Series Part 4: Selection for “The Company” of the 2025 PCA Trade Show

Photo/Images Credits: Cigar Coop